Eight EU Countries Are Selling Less at Retail Than Four Years Ago
Silver Data Lab Research Desk · Statistical analysis · Published on 11 August 2026
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- Data source
- Eurostat
- Reference period
- 2025
- Last updated
- 11 August 2026
Key estimates
- EU retail sales volumes in 2025 stood at 103.4 against a 2021 base of 100 — 3.4% higher after four years.
- Finland is at 91.9, Estonia 92.9 and Belgium 93.2: retail volumes below their 2021 level.
- Eight Member States are below 100, meaning households bought less at retail in 2025 than four years earlier.
- Bulgaria at 120.9 and Romania at 115.8 grew fastest among the larger eastern economies.
- Germany at 100.6 is effectively flat across the whole four-year period.
What a volume index measures
Retail turnover can rise while people buy less, if prices rise faster than sales. The volume index removes that: it is adjusted for price changes, so it tracks the quantity of goods sold rather than the money spent on them.
Against a 2021 base of 100, EU retail volumes in 2025 stood at 103.4. Four years of growth totalling 3.4%.
The countries that went backwards
Eight Member States are below 100. Finland records 91.9, Estonia 92.9, Belgium 93.2, Sweden 96.5, Austria 97.1, Denmark 97.2, Italy 97.6 and Czechia 99.3.
In each of those countries, households bought less at retail in 2025 than they did in 2021. Finland and Estonia are roughly 8% below where they started.
The grouping is northern and central rather than poor. Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Belgium are among the Union's higher-income Member States, and all four are below their 2021 level. This is not a ranking of prosperity.
The countries that grew
Luxembourg records 137.3, Cyprus 124.5 and Malta 122.6, all small economies where retail figures can move sharply for reasons that have little to do with domestic households — cross-border shopping in Luxembourg's case.
Bulgaria at 120.9 and Romania at 115.8 are the substantial cases. Both are large enough that the growth reflects domestic consumption, and both are among the Union's lower-income Member States. Croatia at 116.6 and Portugal at 115.2 follow.
Germany, and what the EU figure hides
Germany records 100.6. Over four years, German retail volumes are essentially unchanged.
Because Germany is the Union's largest retail market, that flat line pulls the EU aggregate down and the aggregate of 103.4 conceals a split rather than describing a common experience: strong growth across the south and east, stagnation or contraction across much of the north and centre.
The period this covers ran through the energy price shock of 2022 and the inflation that followed it. A volume index strips the price effect out of the measurement, but not out of the behaviour — households facing higher energy and housing costs have less left for everything else, and this is what that looks like four years on.
Volume of retail sales, 2025 (2021 = 100)
| Country | index, 2021 = 100 | Gap to EU averagepercentage points, derived |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 137.3 | +33.9 |
| Cyprus | 124.5 | +21.1 |
| Malta | 122.6 | +19.2 |
| European Unionaggregate | 103.4 | — |
| Belgium | 93.2 | −10.2 |
| Estonia | 92.9 | −10.5 |
| Finland | 91.9 | −11.5 |
What these figures cannot tell you
- An index, not a level
- All countries start at 100 in 2021, so this measures change and not how much retail activity a country has. A Member State can grow fastest here and still have the smallest retail sector per head.
- The 2021 base is not a neutral year
- 2021 was affected by pandemic restrictions, which were lifted at different times in different Member States. A country whose 2021 retail activity was unusually suppressed will show stronger growth from that base for reasons unrelated to later conditions.
- Retail is not all consumption
- NACE division 47 covers retail trade excluding motor vehicles. Spending on services, which is where much of consumption has shifted, is not included, so a falling retail volume does not necessarily mean households are consuming less overall.
- Small economies move for external reasons
- In Luxembourg, Cyprus and Malta, cross-border shopping and visitor spending are large relative to the domestic retail market, so their figures are less informative about resident households than the larger Member States are.
Frequently asked questions
- Are Europeans buying more than before?
- On average slightly. EU retail sales volumes in 2025 were 3.4% above their 2021 level. That aggregate conceals a wide split: eight Member States were below their 2021 level and several others more than 15% above it.
- Which EU countries are buying less than in 2021?
- Eight: Finland at 91.9 on a 2021 base of 100, Estonia at 92.9, Belgium at 93.2, Sweden at 96.5, Austria at 97.1, Denmark at 97.2, Italy at 97.6 and Czechia at 99.3.
- Which EU country has the fastest retail growth?
- Luxembourg at 137.3, though cross-border shopping makes that figure unrepresentative of resident households. Among larger economies Bulgaria leads at 120.9, with Romania at 115.8 and Croatia at 116.6.
- Does this account for inflation?
- Yes. It is a volume index, adjusted for price changes, so it measures how much was bought rather than how much was spent. Turnover measured in cash terms rose considerably more over the same period.
Methodological note
Eurostat publishes the volume of sales in retail trade as a calendar-adjusted index. This study uses NACE division 47, retail trade except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, on the 2021 = 100 base as published.
Because the index is a volume measure, it is adjusted for price changes and tracks quantity sold rather than turnover.
Values are for 2025 and cover all 27 Member States. The count of Member States below 100 and the characterisation of the EU figure as concealing a north-south split are derived by Silver Data Lab from the published index values.
Source data
The underlying series can be inspected and re-downloaded from the Eurostat data browser. The filters below are the ones applied.
Turnover and volume of sales in wholesale and retail trade
sts_trtu_a
- Filters applied:
- freq=A · indic_bt=VOL_SLS · nace_r2=G47 · s_adj=CA · unit=I21 · time=2025
- Extracted:
- 2026-09-06
- Source last updated:
- 2026-09-05
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